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India should resist pressure to make early concessions in its trade negotiations with the United States, instead adopting a patient strategy that tests Washington’s resolve before striking a final agreement, according to a new report by SBI Research.
Drawing on an unusual football analogy, the report likens the current trade negotiations to a high-stakes match in which the winning move may not be a direct attack but a calculated sidestep.
“As India negotiates with the U.S. for a trade deal, firmly hold center, test U.S. resolve and dive sideways,” the report said, comparing the strategy to the tactical play expected in a Spain-Belgium football showdown, where timing and positioning can prove more decisive than aggressive forward play.
The report, authored by Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser at the State Bank of India, argues that the U.S. administration has increasingly used uncertainty as a negotiating tool across multiple fronts—including tariffs, NATO, Iran, China and trade relations with India—to maximize bargaining leverage.
According to the report, Washington deliberately preserves ambiguity about its negotiating position, forcing trading partners and allies to decide whether to concede, wait or counter-escalate. While such a strategy may deliver short-term gains, repeated use of uncertainty risks eroding America’s long-term credibility, it said.
For India, however, the report sees an opportunity rather than a threat.
Unlike China, which possesses substantial leverage through its dominance in rare earths, manufacturing and supply chains, India brings a different set of strategic strengths to the negotiating table, including its large consumer market, technology talent, pharmaceutical industry, defense procurement potential, energy diversification and influence through the Indian diaspora.
“India’s best strategy is to wear down the opening position, not the relationship,” the report said, recommending that New Delhi maintain constructive engagement, avoid public confrontation, offer only limited and reversible concessions, and wait until U.S. domestic political and economic pressures make India’s strategic value even more apparent.
The report argues that India should be prepared to absorb short-term costs if necessary.
“India’s strategy should be to test the resolve of the U.S. administration and potentially accept a high-cost follow-through in the short run… Dive sideways and test the resolve. India will win,” it said.
SBI Research contends that the U.S. administration’s negotiating approach follows a consistent pattern. Major tariff announcements are often introduced aggressively before being delayed, narrowed or adjusted aftermarket reactions and diplomatic engagement. Similar tactics have been evident in negotiations involving NATO defense spending, Iran, Greenland and strategic competition with China.
Rather than treating trade, defense and geopolitical issues separately, Washington increasingly bundles them into a single negotiating framework, allowing it to create multiple points of leverage simultaneously, the report said.
The report notes, however, that this strategy is constrained when dealing with China because Beijing possesses credible economic counter-leverage through critical minerals, export controls and global manufacturing capacity. That forces Washington to calibrate its approach more carefully than it can with many allies and trading partners.
Looking beyond India-U.S. trade relations, the report warns that persistent reliance on strategic ambiguity could gradually diminish the effectiveness of U.S. bargaining power. As allies and competitors become accustomed to announcements being softened or delayed, markets may increasingly discount American policy signals, reducing the credibility that underpins successful negotiations.
The likely outcome, SBI Research said, is neither a complete breakdown in trust nor a return to earlier levels of predictability. Instead, countries are expected to make selective concessions while simultaneously diversifying their strategic and economic partnerships, creating a more hedged global order in which uncertainty itself becomes part of the negotiating process.
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