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Opinion: Balancing the Trade Equation

by G. Srinivasan
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The World Trade Organization (WTO) has justifiably contended that as India seeks to expand its role in global trade in a morose external milieu, it is veritably on the horns of a dilemma. While plumping for a greater part in global trade, diversifying exports and meeting its long-term development objectives, “the balance between self-reliance and openness, as well as its engagement in the multilateral trading system and its reforms” would hold “the key determinants of India’s future growth and resilience.”       

This is the nub of the 244-page report of India’s Trade Policy Review under discussion at the WTO headquarters in Geneva with the Indian authorities for three days beginning on July 21.

The once-in-four-year review from the global body struggling to stay relevant when multilateralism is in the intensive-care unit, has focused on the positive features in India’s trade policy.

To attain high-income economy status by 2047, India will need to sustain real GDP growth of approximately 8 percent annually. India was consistently the fastest-growing G-20 economy including in 2022-23, when India chaired the G-20 for the first time. GDP growth estimates, rebased on fiscal 2022-23 economic data, compute average annual real GDP growth rate at 7.3 per cent between fiscal year 2022-23 and 2025-26, the WTO noted, adding that India’s digital economy and digitally delivered services were the standout performer. 

Stating that the digital economy is estimated to be growing ‘at twice the pace of the overall economy,’ the report singled out India Stacks solutions as “a defining feature.” Interoperability is an inherent lineament of the India Stack-a set of open application programming interfaces and digital public goods- it noted, adding that participation from non-Indian firms in the India Stack is possible by offering services on the application ecosystem or through India Stack government procurement tenders.

That is why in its presentation to the WTO, India contended that “amid complex digital, green and demographic transitions, unimpeded access to global markets, critical minerals and high-end technology remains a non-negotiable imperative.”

India’s presentation to the WTO also took legitimate pride in claiming that services are a key factor swaying the country’s growth trajectory. Services trade has shown significant growth between 2021 and 2025: India ranks eighth globally in services exports, increasing its share in global services exports from 3.7 percent in 2021 to 4.2 per cent in 2024. As of 2024-25, India’s services exports to the world stand at 387.5 billion dollars and services imports at 198.7 billion dollars, leaving a substantial surplus in services exports.

On the merchandise goods front, India said the performance of the non-petroleum, non-gems and jewelry sector reached a historic high of 374.3 billion dollars in fiscal 2025, growing at a robust 7.5 per cent over fiscal 2024. It has also diversified its trade partnerships, ranking third among Global South nations for partnership diversity.    

India’s trade performance reflected its robust revealed comparative advantages in services, the WTO report said, adding that its services trade surplus reached 4.8 percent of GDP in fiscal 2024-25, partly counterbalancing a goods trade deficit of 7.3 percent. Besides, strong remittance inflows also helped cover part of the deficit.

While India’s manufacturing is a policy priority as a key focus of the Viksit Bharat vision with the government putting in place a plethora of investment-promotion measures and targeted fillips for this sector, services remained the dominant driver of overall economic expansion from the supply front, accounting for 53.6 percent of GDP in the first half of 2025-26. In services trade, telecom, computer, and information services held the largest export category, while other business services accounted for the largest share of services imports. 

On tariffs impinging on trade, the WTO said at the 6-digit level and as calculated by the WTO for the purpose of cross-country comparisons, India’s overall average applied MFN (Most Favored Nation) tariff was 15.8 per cent in 2025. 

The report elliptically ended by suggesting that Indian authorities address “structural challenges, including high trade costs, regulatory complexity, infrastructure gaps, and barriers to deeper global integration.” That this is a daunting task is known but acted upon incrementally, like all the economic reforms since 1991, policy wonks say wryly.

Disclaimer: The opinions and views expressed in this article/column are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of South Asian Herald.

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