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Barely six weeks to go for an electoral showdown that could essentially draw the road map for the next two years or perhaps even the next six, President Donald Trump is pressured from all sides; and legislators in the Grand Old Party, even those holding to so-called safe seats, are not sure how far and long they could hang on to a leader whose popularity needle has not shifted from 33 percent for quite sometime now.
President Trump had been one of the biggest cheerleaders of the Senator Lindsey Graham Sanctions Bill against Russia and Iran. In fact, it was at the instance of the White House did law makers add Iran to what was originally intended for Moscow alone and a measure heavily lobbied by Ukraine and by President Volodymyr Zelensky personally. The idea was to heavily penalize Russia by depriving it of the funds for a conflict that is now in its fifth year and termed at the start a “Special Military Operation” by President Vladimir Putin ostensibly to take out Nazis and thugs on the other side of the border.
The House of Representatives voted 262-159 following the 86-11 Senate approval of the Graham Bill last month and sent it to the White House for the President’s signature. In normal times the Bill would have been signed in a nano second; but it is coming to a President’s desk at a difficult time. Putting his signature to a sheet of paper would mean having to sanction countries like China and India of up to 100 percent in tariffs for buying Russian oil; giving a national security waiver would expose the weakness of the legislation; and glaring exemptions to one or two but punishing a few select others would invite biting criticism of double standards, not that Washington is going to be overly concerned.
It is a well-known fact that China and India are top buyers of Russian crude oil with Beijing accounting for about 50 percent total crude exports and India in the neighborhood of 38 percent. But the Trump administration is also aware of the fact that China and India are totally different trading partners: two-way goods trade of the United States with China is around US$ 415 billions with about US$ 200 billion in deficit; with India it is around US$ 149 billions with a deficit of about US$ 40 billion. If Washington is going to hammer China with tariffs for buying Russian crude, Beijing can always come back with a sledgehammer as it has shown that it is capable of in the back-and-forth tariff war that has been going on since April 2025.
Going after China is difficult for two reasons. First Beijing will undoubtedly come back in full force, not only with tariffs but also will start playing that usual run-around with rare earths exports so as to hurt American technology and defense companies. Washington and Beijing are said to be involved in high level consultations on tariffs; and the Russia focused levies will undoubtedly complicate matters. And it is not just hi-tech that the Trump administration would be worried about—what about the US$ 15 billions of agricultural products that the Chinese had supposedly promised to buy and something they could put the brakes on?
The timing of the Graham Bill reaching the White House is also difficult for one other reason: would President Trump want to ruin a red-carpet welcome that is being planned for China’s President Xi Jinping on September 24? There is just too much at stake here for the White House to throw away, politically, economically and strategically. Republican and Democratic law makers who signed on to the Graham Bill knew what they were signing off on: not just targeting industries and markets of Russia but also of shadow fleets and individuals who were quietly bankrolling the Kremlin’s war in the Ukraine. Law makers must have been aware of the impact on consumer prices and that too at a time when there is a loud debate and concern of rising prices with November 3 Mid Terms just around the corner.
Law makers of the Grand Old Party seem to be facing additional pressure on the eve of the mid-terms with one political assessment being that Republicans will lose the House of Representatives and perhaps even the Senate. The thinking could be that President Trump could spare those law makers in tight races in both chambers by using the national security waiver clause and sparing tariffs on nations who are bound to retaliate. As it is there is a feeling that the Bill has “so many loopholes” that sanctions against Moscow will not be applied. “What this legislation will do is give Donald Trump, perhaps, unfettered authority to unleash tariffs on the American people” said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries while announcing his negative vote to the bill.
As it is pressure is piling on the White House to find a quick way out of the mess in the Middle East, the situation worsening as Houthis have opened yet another front by trying to dent Saudi Arabia’s export outlet through the Bab-al-Mandab and the Red Sea. The Iran war is soon to enter the eighth month as opposed to being wrapped up in a “matter of days.” The oil markets have started to rattle in the aftermath of the Houthi attacks; and markets will begin signs of volatility if President Trump starts targeting countries for buying Russian oil and petroleum products.
Disclaimer: The opinions and views expressed in this article/column are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of South Asian Herald.
