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No one seems to be talking of a war that is in its fifth year, a scandalous “Special Military Operation” started by President Vladimir Putin in 2022 to take care of so-called nazis and thugs in Ukraine. For a brief time, there was a lot of buzz of a diplomatic settlement at the instance of the United States; but soon Washington become engrossed in a war in the Middle East, supposedly to take care of Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
The mess that started on February 28 is continuing with the Trump administration desperate to end it even if it means dragging third countries by way of secondary sanctions for doing business with Iran. And then came the fight of the “cousins” last week when Canada and the United States faced off in an all-out trade war, Washington obviously miffed at its Northern neighbor daring not to reach a deal. Some even believe that this spat with Ottawa is nothing more than a deliberate diversion of a failed Middle East policy of the United States. For now, this theory is in the realm of conjecture.
But Ukraine is certainly the bothersome story; and has suddenly perked up in news outlets and commentaries as a result of the “semi-routine” trip of the Central Intelligence Agency boss John Ratcliffe, the first such trip of a CIA chief since the full-fledged invasion of Ukraine. Five years ago, the then top spy, William Burns paid a visit to Moscow perhaps to confront President Putin that Washington was all too aware of his Ukrainian plans. That made little difference as Russian tanks rolled in anyway. This time around Ratcliffe met his opposite numbers in which has been described by Moscow as “standard working format.”
What transpired in the CIA Chief’s secret mission will not be discussed in the media, only speculative accounts that will be attributed to “sources.” One view is that Ratcliffe offered a rather bleak assessment of Russia’s standing in the Ukraine war, as if President Putin was unaware of this. The sharing of this “bleak” news stems from a perception that perhaps the Russian leader is not hearing the actual truth from his top Generals and commanders. The bottom-line message: that Moscow should actively seek a way out of the hostilities by engaging in serious talks before further battlefield reverses.
There has been some stepped up concern in Europe if President Putin could substantially up the ante by resorting to the use of tactical nuclear weapons as a way of warning Kyiv of total annihilation if it did not capitulate. Until now there had been the quiet thinking that Moscow will abide by the unwritten rule in place for the last eight decades against the use of nuclear weapons. That seems to be in some jeopardy as Ukrainian forces appear to made substantial gains in the frontlines with drones and missiles breaching the air defenses of Russia, notably in an around the Kremlin.
The use of nukes is only part of the West’s concerns. The other has to do with President Putin attacking allies of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), especially against the Baltic states of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia as a way of softening domestic hardliners who have been highly critical of the fashion the war is progressing. More than the use of nukes, there is a nagging feeling in Europe that President Putin might be testing the resolve and commitment of the United States to getting involved should a member state come under attack. After all President Putin is quite aware of President Trump’s views on the NATO.
Supposedly one of the CIA Chief’s discussion points was to reiterate that Washington stood by Article 5 of the NATO doctrine—attack on one is an attack on all.
Finally, of what use would be of the CIA boss’s trip to Moscow without a discussion of Iran war that is going nowhere except more add- ons by way of possible objectives. Hawks in the United States and elsewhere have been of the opinion that Tehran would not have lasted so long without intelligence inputs from Russia as well as clandestine supply of missiles and keeping production lines open. The same line has been used against China. Both have expectedly denied involvement.
The visit of Ratcliffe also comes at a time when the United States Congress is set to formalize the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026 with a view to increasing economic pressure. The Bill overwhelmingly cleared the Senate and the House of Representatives is set to consider this in September. A few Republican and Democratic law makers are seen as holdouts on provisions that, among other things, authorizes duty increases of 500 percent and tariffs of up to 100 percent on goods from countries that import Russian crude and natural gas. What remains to be seen is how differently President Putin sees the latest punitive measures, especially if he has weathered earlier Western storms.
Passing the Graham Act could be seen as a shot in the arm for Republicans with barely four to six weeks to go for the November 3 mid-term elections. Here again, law makers seeking re-election will be more eagerly awaiting the end of the war in Iran which appears to be draining the popularity of President Trump on whose strength many Republicans lean on.
Disclaimer: The opinions and views expressed in this article/column are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of South Asian Herald.
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Putin’s Delhi Gambit: How a High-Stakes Visit Could Redraw India’s Geopolitical Map
Putin Rejects Peace as War Slouches Into Its Fourth Year
