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The West Asia/Middle East crisis, India’s neighborhood, the China challenge, the state of multilateralism and multipolarity were some of the themes discussed at this year’s Heads of Missions meeting in New Delhi.
For the uninitiated, the Heads of Missions or HoMs meet is generally an annual affair with Indian diplomats from across the world gathering to brainstorm on strategy and take stock of achievements of foreign policy goals. Making India a developed economy by 2047 and India’s ties with Africa were the other topics on the table.
Expectedly, challenges thrown up by the Middle East crisis – i.e. shortage of fuel worldwide, security questions for the Gulf states, the future of Iran, etc. and its impact on the India growth story — were discussed. Two months into the war, Iran’s leadership hasn’t exactly folded despite the immense pressure mounted by the world’s mightiest military, i.e. the US. Iran has successfully used geography i.e. closed the Straits of Hormuz and inflicted some of the pain its feeling on the world — India included. This in a world already reeling from Trump’s irrational tariffs.
The UAE exiting the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, that decides on production and prices of crude oil, is viewed as a consequence of the Iran war. But tensions were already seething with Saudi Arabia; they have now broken through the surface. This may give India easier access to more oil as the UAE wants to increase production. But Saudi Arabia and the UAE being at odds can also be a challenge. Both are strategic partners in whom India has heavily invested. So far, India had to balance Iran, the Arab States and Israel with the 2020 Abraham Accords, providing some relief. The new development could upset this.
In India’s neighborhood, there are new governments and relations need careful tending, with China closely watching for opportunities to deepen its influence. Trump’s unpredictability is seen as a reason for India rolling back strict rules unveiled in 2020, putting brakes on investments from China. But China isn’t to be trusted entirely – it withheld or delayed export clearances for rare earth magnets and restricted specialty fertilizers in 2024-25 while an India-China thaw was underway.
India is hosting two key summits this year – BRICS and the fourth India-Africa Summit — that will give it a sense of what key partners think of multilateralism and multipolarity. India favors both but how many others feel the same in a chaotic might is right world?
