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Amid the uncertainties in the Middle East/West Asia, some key developments are emerging pointers to how the region is likely to shape up in future. The joint defense pact that was signed in Mecca on August 7, bringing together three key Sunni Muslim countries, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye in one of these. All are US allies but now recognize the imperative of formalizing a security pact in the wake of the Iran-US conflict.
The “Mecca Joint Defence Agreement” is intended to strengthen collective deterrence against any act of aggression. It stipulates that an armed attack against any one of the three, would be regarded as an attack against all. Details of the pact are yet to emerge but it is largely aimed at addressing Saudi Arabia’s security concerns vis a vis Iran. Saudi Arabia was one of the countries repeatedly targeted by Tehran during the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Saudi oil interests are now threatened by the Houthis in Yemen, seen as a proxy for Iran.
The trilateral pact follows one signed by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia last year. That says that an act of aggression against one will be considered an aggression against both. This signaled an expansion of defense cooperation between the two countries. Traditionally, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have had close ties. Recall former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif spent years in exile in Saudi Arabia after falling out with then Pakistan army chief Pervez Musharraf in 1999? It was also widely believed that Riyadh intervened on behalf of Sharif that led to Musharraf allowing Sharif a safe exit to Saudi Arabia. Pakistan-Turkiye ties have been warm too. Just last year, Turkiye came to Pakistan’s assistance, sending in military hardware during Operation Sindoor.
The same can’t quite be said for Turkiye and Saudi Arabia, though ties have now begun to stabilize. Remember the outrage expressed by Turkey when Saudi origin columnist Jamal Khashoggi was killed in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018? Or tensions deepening when Turkiye supported the Arab Spring protests in 2010-2011 that Saudi Arabia viewed as a threat? Historically too, there was rivalry between the Ottomans and Arabs.
The evolving situation in the Middle East requires new strategies. And the deal is one among those efforts by countries. Pakistan brings in the nuclear umbrella and manpower, Saudi Arabia contributes finances and Turkey has the military-industrial capacity needed to ensure the alliance is a credible one.
And this is precisely why India should be wary. India is now seen as allied with the US-Israel-UAE axis in West Asia. Complicating the equations are the sour relations between the UAE and Saudi Arabia. India and in particular Prime Minister Narendra Modi have put in considerable effort into recrafting India’s ties with West Asia since 2014. Now all that seems to be under a cloud.
Saudi Arabia and Turkey are unlikely to send troops to support Pakistan in a conflict with India. But in the new context, Turkey’s military support to Pakistan would be overt and justified. During Operation Sindoor, Saudi Arabia was seen as trying to mediate between India and Pakistan. Those efforts could now get stronger, should the need arise. This may strain the India-Saudi Arabia relationship that had improved considerably in the last few years. Another challenge for Indian diplomacy to deal with.
Disclaimer: The opinions and views expressed in this article/column are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of South Asian Herald.
