A new report from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) has revealed that as of 2024, the populations of 126 countries, including India, Pakistan and the United States of America, are expected to grow through 2054, and expected to peak in the second half of the century.
According to the “World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results,” published on July 11, 2024, the world’s population will peak in the mid-2080s, increasing from 8.2 billion people in 2024 to approximately 10.3 billion in 2080. It is projected to decrease slightly to about 10.2 billion by the end of the century. This estimate is 6 per cent lower – 700 million fewer people— than projected a decade ago.
“The demographic landscape has evolved greatly in recent years,” said DESA Under-Secretary-General, Li Junhua. “In some countries, the birth rate is now even lower than previously anticipated, and we are also seeing slightly faster declines in some high-fertility regions. The earlier and lower peak is a hopeful sign. This could mean reduced environmental pressures from human impacts due to lower aggregate consumption. However, slower population growth will not eliminate the need to reduce the average impact attributable to the activities of each individual person.”
The report noted the earlier population peak is due to several factors, including lower levels of fertility in some of the world’s largest countries, especially China. Globally, women are having one child fewer, on average, than they did in 1990. In more than half of all countries and areas, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1—the level required for a population to maintain a constant size over the long term without migration—and nearly a fifth of all countries and areas, including China, Italy, the Republic of Korea and Spain, now have “ultra-low” fertility, with fewer than 1.4 live births per woman over a lifetime.
As of 2024, the report stated the population in 63 countries including China, Germany, Japan and Russia has peaked and is expected to decline 14 per cent over the next 30 years. Early pregnancies, in low-income countries, remain a challenge, the report pointed out noting 4.7 million babies, about 3.5 per cent of the total around the world, are born to mothers under 18 in 2024. Among these, 340,000 were born to mothers under 15, posing serious health risks, and higher potential for poor outcomes for both the mother and child.
The report highlights “investing in the education of young people, especially girls, and increasing the ages of marriage and first childbearing,” can improve women’s health, education, and labor force participation. These measures will also help slow population growth and reduce the investment needed for sustainable development ensuring no one is left behind.
“Over the past three decades, mortality rates have decreased, and life expectancy has increased significantly. After a brief decline during the COVID-19 pandemic, global life expectancy at birth is rising again, reaching 73.3 years in 2024, up from 70.9 years during the pandemic. By the late 2050s, more than half of all global deaths will occur at age 80 or higher, a substantial increase from 17 per cent in 1995,” the report continued.
According to the report, in the coming decades, demographic shifts indicate that by the late 2070s, the elderly population, aged 65 years or older, will exceed the population under 18 years old. By the mid-2030s, it is anticipated that the population aged 80 and above will outnumber infants, under age 1, even in countries with youthful populations and rapid growth. This trend is expected to persist over the next three decades, impacting the global landscape.
