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Five years after the Taliban took back Kabul, the situation in Afghanistan remains complicated. Although the long war has largely ended, the Taliban now controls nearly the entire country. There is much less fighting, and many Afghans no longer live with the daily threat of airstrikes, attacks, or clashes between groups.
But Afghanistan has traded war for strict stability, isolation for gradual integration, and U.S. dominance for competition among neighboring countries. The biggest change may be this new regional rivalry.
In 2021, most of the world condemned the Taliban. By 2025, more countries have started to accept them as Afghanistan’s government. Russia officially recognized the Taliban in 2025 and China and other nearby countries have strengthened their diplomatic ties.
Practical reasons
These countries act out of practical reasons. China wants to secure its western border and access to Afghanistan’s resources and trade. Russia hopes to stop jihadist groups from threatening Central Asia. Pakistan wants border security and influence, but its ties with the Taliban have gotten worse. India wants to keep Afghanistan from becoming a base for Pakistan or China. The United States wants counterterrorism promises without getting involved in another war.
The Taliban is at the center of these competing interests. They have learned that they do not always need to change at home to gain more acceptance abroad.
The Taliban deserves credit for ending the countrywide insurgency, but stability is not the same as peace. The Islamic State Khorasan is still a threat. Other militant groups persist active, and there are ongoing reports of detentions, disappearances and abuses against opponents. The Taliban’s power comes more from force than from including different political voices.
Afghanistan has moved from conflict to strict, controlling stability, not to a political solution that includes everyone. Afghan society suffers most from this change.
The Taliban’s changes have been especially damaging for women and girls. Girls still cannot attend secondary school or university and women face strict limits on work, movement and public life. This is not simply a human rights issue. It is also an economic crisis. A country cannot build a modern economy if half its people are kept from learning skills and taking part in work. The damage will compound over many generations.
The Taliban says its policies are based on its view of Islam and Afghan traditions. But Afghan women are not just pieces in a political or religious struggle. They are people with rights, and their futures are at stake.
Afghanistan’s economy has held up better than many expected after the international withdrawal. The country is earning more at home and some areas are recovering. Still, just getting by is not the same as real progress.
Poverty, joblessness, low investment, limits on women and dependence on foreign aid are still big problems. Afghanistan needs more jobs, better infrastructure, stronger farming, and easier access to nearby markets, not just more humanitarian aid.
Afghanistan’s location offers growth opportunities. It sits between South and Central Asia and could become a key trade link. But to make this happen, the country needs good institutions, reliable infrastructure, skilled workers and a stable business environment. The Taliban’s job is to help Afghans build better lives, not keep them dependent on outside help.
Since 2021, perhaps the biggest change is that more countries now recognize the Taliban. China is careful, focusing on stability and security instead of political change. Russia now sees the Taliban as a useful partner against the Islamic State. Meanwhile, Pakistan, once the Taliban’s main supporter, now faces a neighbor that is either more hostile or more independent because of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan.
India has slowly started to get involved again. It wants to protect its own interests and make sure Afghanistan does not fall under the control of Pakistan or China. The United States faces a tough choice. It wants to stop Afghanistan from becoming a base for terrorists and keep up intelligence ties, but it does not want to send troops again. As a result, its influence is now more indirect.
This divided outside world helps the Taliban. They can work with China without copying its ways, team up with Russia but stay independent, get closer to India without cutting off Pakistan, and talk to the United States without giving in to Western demands. Their simple plan is to balance the big powers without depending too much on any one.
This creates a risky problem. If the Taliban is treated like a normal government, it has less reason to change from within. If countries offer recognition, trade, and regional ties without real progress on women’s education, political rights and basic freedoms, these rewards might actually help the Taliban tighten its grip on power.
But keeping Afghanistan isolated forever is not the answer. It would hurt ordinary Afghans, worsen the economy and reduce the world’s ability to help. A better way is to stay engaged, but with clear principles.
The world should keep talking to Afghanistan but make it clear that engagement is not the same as approval. Humanitarian aid should go to Afghans no matter the politics. Economic help should focus on farming, energy, infrastructure, small businesses and trade with neighbors.
Women’s education should be the main test for Afghanistan’s place in the world. Afghan women, civil society, teachers, businesspeople, and minorities need to be part of international talks. Rebuilding Afghanistan cannot depend only on talks between foreign governments and Taliban leaders.
The region needs a common plan. Even though China, Russia, Pakistan, India, and the United States have different goals, they all want to stop Afghanistan from becoming a center for terrorism, mass migration and instability again.
Inclusive society
The Taliban has turned military victory into permanent political power and moved from exclusion to greater diplomatic importance. But stability does not always mean freedom. A country can have diplomatic ties while still violating basic rights. It can also see economic growth even if people’s lives are not improving.
Afghanistan’s future should not depend only on what its neighbors want. The aim is not to keep fighting the Taliban or reward them just for staying in power. Instead, Afghanistan’s return to the world should help build a stronger inclusive society, not just create the appearance of concord.
The global power struggle over Afghanistan has returned. This time, the world must make sure that ordinary Afghans, not the Taliban or other powerful groups, are the ones who benefit most.
Disclaimer: The opinions and views expressed in this article/column are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of South Asian Herald.
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