The traditional saying is that Americans vote by their pocketbooks, implying that issues of foreign policy hardly matter in national elections. In the normal scheme of things, issues of how the United States deals with foreign nations prominently figure in Presidential elections. But these are not normal times for America is involved in two theatres: indirectly in Europe by way of the Russia-Ukraine war which will soon enter into the sixth year; and directly in the Middle East by way of the war against Iran that will soon enter its ninth month. Incidentally both conflicts were supposed to have been wrapped up in days, weeks at the most.
The Mid-terms of November 3 is witnessing the pocketbook theory linked directly with foreign policy where the average American is feeling the pinch in the wallet and in a growing concern that it will only get worse. It is not just the price of petrol at the pumps which is now in the upwards of US$ 4 a gallon; diesel has got much dearer in recent weeks—hovering around US$ 6 per gallon and expected to touch US$ 8– leaving a huge impact on transportation costs which in turn reflects in the grocery bills. President Donald Trump turned to President Vladimir Putin for the Diesel Deal but in the process had Republicans and Democrats fuming that the recently enacted Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran of 2026 had been laid waste.
Law makers in the Grand Old Party in both the House of Representatives and Senate have been urging the White House for a quick end to the war against Iran. The argument that there are no plans for starting major strikes against Tehran prior to the mid-term polls hardly matters to Republicans who see themselves quite vulnerable. Further there are reports that Washington may start its offensives this week with unnamed administration officials stressing that Iran may be planning for a major offensive against American interests in the Middle East. An escalated war on the eve of polling could make matters worse for those Republicans who are already jittery that their advantages even in the solid red states are slipping away.
The problem for the GOP is also of the approval rating of President Trump on a downward slide and currently put at 32 percent. Republican law makers are caught between a rock and a hard place: they are apprehensive of being in the company of the President; yet at the same time also aware of his hardcore supporters and his personal pull during elections. Not many elected representatives have come out openly against President Trump even as they could be cringing at his last-minute rhetorics and support for what is seen as distasteful ads as recently witnessed in Ohio. The fact that President Trump is spending time in states like Ohio, Texas, Iowa and even places like Oklahoma and Alabama shows the nervousness of the party, strategists maintain.
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The problem for President Trump and the Republican party is the shift in voters, not just from Independents and the undecided. There seems to be a problem in every demographic group starting with the Blacks and Hispanics who were seen as being critical to President Trump’s win in 2024 and abandoning the Democrats at the time. This election cycle, both these groups are seen pivoting back to the Democrats disillusioned at policies and attitudes on a number of issues including the crackdown on illegal immigration. And if foreign policy is to be roped in to shifting perceptions, it is believed that Arab Americans who were aghast at the goings on in the Gaza over the last three years, President Trump’s endorsement and high praise of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for his October 27 parliamentary polls is something to be reckoned with.
With a three million plus vote base, the Indian Americans too are a factor to be reckoned with. The community may not place a high priority on India-United States relations, but issues of immigration like Green Cards, H1B, H4 and F1 student visas are as well as the long wait for B1/B2 Tourist and Business visas. Yanking labor certifications for permanent residency status even to those already in the pipeline and adding uncertainties to extensions on the H1B and Optional Practical Training permits for students have not exactly gone over well to a community that believes it has contributed its fair share to the all-round growth of America.
Likewise, a smaller group of Ukrainians spread across principally in states like New York, California, Pennsylvania and Illinois may perceive the recent foreign policy moves as not being in the best interests of Kyiv. The Iranian-Americans are of a diverse political group from those calling for democratic reforms and improvements to human rights situation in Iran, deep concern for the continued sanctions and utter disbelief at the death and destruction as a result of American-Israeli air strikes, all of which are expected to weigh in on polling day.
Most surveys have pointed to a re-organization of the political spectrum on Capitol Hill. The general feeling is of the Grand Old Party losing its slim majority in the House of Representatives with some maintaining that the Senate is also in play depending on how states like Michigan, Alaska and New Hampshire play out. But in tightly contested seats irrespective of being in the red, blue or purple states where a handful of votes could be between winning and losing, every group of voters is going to be of significance.
Disclaimer: The opinions and views expressed in this article/column are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of South Asian Herald.
