In this exclusive conversation with D.C. Dispatch, South Asian Herald’s special podcast, Sian Prior, Ph.D., shipping policy director at the Brussels-based advocacy group Seas at Risk, said the Arctic has moved from a story of opportunity to one of urgency. Climate now intersects with geopolitics, while science still struggles to break through at the policy level.

“The evidence is clear,” Prior said, fresh from the Arctic Circle Assembly in Reykjavík. “But it isn’t always being heard or acted on at the political or geopolitical level.”

From development dreams to security alarms

For years, Arctic gatherings tilted toward development, energy, minerals and new passages between Asia and Europe. Climate concerns then took center stage. In Reykjavík this year, Prior said security and geopolitics moved into the foreground, shaped by a warming region and a chillier global mood.

With no official Russian or American delegations present and a lower profile Chinese presence, the conversation leaned toward European officials, NGOs and smaller states. The temperature still rose, climate denialists were more vocal, according to Prior, and security debates sharpened as the Arctic opened to traffic and resource access.

“As the Arctic opens up,” Prior said, “geopolitics are going to become more intense, and security issues will have a much higher profile.”

A rising threat you cannot see — Black carbon

Prior reserved her strongest language for black carbon, the soot from ship exhaust that darkens snow and ice, accelerates melt and harms Arctic communities. Shipping’s black carbon remains unregulated, she said, and emissions in the Arctic have more than doubled over the last decade.

The fastest fix in her view is not futuristic. It is fuel. The sector still leans on heavy residual oils, highly polluting and often paired with scrubbers designed to cut Sulphur, not soot. Switching to cleaner distillate fuels such as marine gas oil in Arctic waters would immediately lower black carbon, with engine upkeep and add on technologies stacking additional gains.

“There was more mention of black carbon this year than I’ve ever heard,” Prior said. “Not just from environmental groups, the shipping sector knows it must transition.”

Why South Asia should care about ice melt

“What happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic,” Prior said. That claim lands close to home in South Asia. Sea level rise threatens Bangladesh and the Maldives, storm frequency and intensity are shifting, and monsoon reliability is increasingly in question as polar dynamics destabilize.

The retreat of sea ice, she added, erodes the Arctic’s planetary refrigerator effect, a key buffer in the global climate system. The stakes extend from northern coastlines to southern megacities.

The Northern Sea Route — Shorter is not simpler

Few Arctic topics draw more attention than the Northern Sea Route along Russia’s coast, which can shorten sailings between Asia and Europe. That line on the map hides hard realities, Prior cautioned. Polar operations fall under the International Maritime Organization’s Polar Code, demanding ice strengthened hulls, enhanced navigation and life-saving gear, and crews trained for remote and hazardous conditions.

In a region with thin search and rescue and spill response coverage, incidents carry outsized risk to fragile ecosystems and wildlife. “A shorter route isn’t automatically a safer or greener one,” Prior said.

Who enforces rules in a borderless ocean

Even as Arctic states must lead, many ships transiting polar waters are flagged to non-Arctic registries. If a vessel sails through without calling at an Arctic port, the flag state, not coastal countries, often holds the key enforcement power.

With China, India, South Korea, Malaysia and Singapore deepening trade links to Far East and Arctic corridors, Prior argued those governments have to share responsibility for governance. That means participating in standard setting and backing real enforcement.

“The lead has to come from the Arctic countries,” she said. “But they cannot ignore voices from elsewhere as others increasingly look to use the Arctic.”

Security heat in cold waters

The Arctic is also testing the boundaries between science and statecraft. NATO signaled its posture in Reykjavík, and last year the US Coast Guard reported Chinese vessels near Alaska, including warships. Prior advocated a delicate balance between maintaining trade and dialogue while ensuring that shipping growth remains within planetary boundaries. 

“We cannot keep expanding shipping everywhere,” she said. “Especially in the Arctic, operations must meet the highest possible standards with minimal environmental impact.”

The policy to do list

• Cut black carbon now by requiring cleaner distillate fuels in Arctic waters. Do not mistake scrubbers for a soot solution.
• Enforce the Polar Code rigorously and build realistic search and rescue and spill response capacity along polar routes.
• Close enforcement gaps by aligning flag and port state responsibilities, especially as non-Arctic countries expand Arctic trade.
• Anchor policy in planetary boundaries and treat the Arctic as a climate keystone, not an open frontier.

Looking ahead, Prior said progress will be measured in concrete signals at sea. Ships entering polar waters on cleaner distillates, a visible decline in black carbon, Polar Code obligations matched by real search and rescue capacity, and routine, verifiable oversight by flag states. Taken together, these steps would make the Arctic a proving ground for disciplined maritime governance rather than an exporter of climate risk to vulnerable economies.

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