The Bihar Assembly Election of 2025 will likely be remembered as one of the most decisive mandates in the state’s recent political history. By early afternoon on November 14, the National Democratic Alliance — powered by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) — surged past 190 seats, inching close to the 200 mark in the 243-member Assembly. The BJP, with roughly 90 seats, emerged as the single-largest party; JD(U) followed with around 80.
The opposition Mahagathbandhan — once projected as a resurgent force under Tejashwi Yadav — collapsed to around 42 seats. Congress fared even worse.
The result was not merely a victory. It was a rout. A political extinguishing. A systematic demolition of the opposition’s principal narratives. And it is a message that will echo far beyond Bihar, shaping the electoral atmospherics for 2026.
How the NDA Pulled Off Its Landslide
Modi–Nitish: A Double-Engine Narrative That Clicked Again
Unlike in past elections where Nitish Kumar faced fatigue and rebellion within his base, 2025 presented the opposite scenario. The BJP and JD(U) delivered a remarkably synchronized campaign, anchored in two messages: administrative continuity and national stability.
Modi’s projected presence — from local rallies to imagery on party chariots brought by jubilant workers — reinforced the idea that Bihar’s governance was tied to Delhi’s political will. Nitish, despite his many ideological shifts, still enjoys credibility among women voters and rural beneficiaries of welfare schemes. The coalition managed to harmonize its pitch: local development blended with national security narratives.
Gendered Welfare: Women Voters as the NDA’s Fortress
A crucial yet under-analyzed factor is the gendered voting pattern. Internal analyses and constituency-level leads indicated that seats with high female voter ratios swung sharply toward the NDA. Nitish Kumar’s long-term investments — reservations in Panchayats, bicycle schemes, education incentives, and safety measures — were repackaged by the NDA as a success story of the “double-engine model.”
Women voters appear to have overwhelmingly endorsed this continuity rather than gamble on a relatively untested leadership model promised by Tejashwi Yadav.
Fragmentation of the Opposition Coalition
The RJD-Congress alliance did not just face the NDA. It was fighting itself.
Congress, the junior partner, contributed little organizationally. RJD, still recovering from internal fissures and generational transitions, fielded candidates with inconsistent regional strength. The Left struggled to mobilize youth as it had in 2020.
The alliance’s messaging also lacked coherence. While RJD hammered home inflation, unemployment, and farm distress, Congress amplified “vote chori” allegations tied to the Election Commission’s SIR voter roll revision. The mixed rhetoric confused voters and alienated moderate supporters.
The SIR Controversy — A Political Narrative That Failed
Congress leaders alleged that 60 lakh voters were deleted during the Special Intensive Revision exercise earlier in the year, disproportionately affecting opposition bastions. While the charge rattled urban liberal circles, it found little resonance at the booth level.
Bihar’s voters — long accustomed to hearing claims of electoral malpractice — prioritized tangible economic concerns over administrative grievances. Without documentary evidence presented during the campaign, the opposition’s narrative came across as anticipatory defeatism rather than whistleblowing.
Prashant Kishor’s Collapse and the Youth Vote Split
Political strategist–turned–politician Prashant Kishor promised a 140-seat sweep for his Jan Suraaj Party — a claim that collapsed almost immediately. His inability to win even one seat highlighted the disconnect between his organizational vision and Bihar’s traditional caste-led electoral geography.
For many young voters, Kishor became a non-factor. His collapse pushed fence-sitters toward stability — the NDA — rather than toward the MGB.
Why Tejashwi Yadav’s Flame Died Down
For over five years, Tejashwi Yadav was touted as the rising star of Bihar politics. In 2020, he won nearly 75 seats and dominated youth mobilization. In 2025, the flame flickered out.
Failure to Expand Beyond RJD’s Identity Core
Despite attempts to broaden his appeal — from employment promises to outreach beyond the Yadav-Muslim base — Tejashwi remained confined to an identity bubble. Raghopur, once his political fortress, showed cracks as he trailed thousands of votes behind his BJP rival. His brother Tej Pratap slipped to fourth place in Mahua — a symbolic collapse of RJD’s second-generation leadership.
The Missing Economic Blueprint
Tejashwi’s key selling point — 10 lakh government jobs — once electrifying, appeared stale this time. Bihar’s electorate sought a concrete roadmap, not recurring promises. NDA leaders constantly attacked the promise as “unfunded populism,” and the RJD failed to counter with detailed fiscal mathematics.
Congress Dragged the Coalition Down
The RJD cannot escape the gravity of its partners. Congress’ organizational weakness, allegations of internal sabotage, and poor seat-level preparation proved costly. With only a handful of wins, Congress acted more as an electoral liability than a multiplier.
Tejashwi’s Narrative Couldn’t Counter Stability
Ultimately, voters did not see him as a risk-free alternative to the Modi–Nitish combine. Bihar, a state historically wary of instability, prioritized continuity over revolution.
What Bihar 2025 Means for India’s 2026 Elections
The magnitude of the NDA’s win creates ripple effects far beyond Patna.
Tamil Nadu (2026): A Different Battlefield
The BJP hopes to ride Bihar-style momentum across India, but Tamil Nadu remains structurally different. Dravidian politics, linguistic identity, and organizational depth of DMK/AIADMK insulate the state from Northeastern-style swings. But the scale of Bihar’s win will embolden the BJP to intensify alliances with smaller Tamil parties, possibly recalibrate ties with the AIADMK, and push for stronger southern visibility.
Assam (2026): NDA Likely to Consolidate
Assam is structurally more similar to Bihar — caste-tribe matrices, welfare dependency, BJP’s deep organizational roots. Bihar’s momentum strengthens the BJP’s claim that national issues such as illegal immigration, identity politics, and welfare delivery resonate strongly.
Expect Himanta Biswa Sarma to leverage Bihar’s results as a validation of “continuity politics.”
West Bengal (2026): The Flashpoint State
Giriraj Singh’s remarks linking Bihar’s results to the expulsion of “Rohingya-Bangladeshi infiltrators” signals the BJP’s plan:
Bihar is the narrative prelude to the Bengal battle. The BJP will now aggressively project the Bihar model — women voters, welfare efficiency, law-and-order messaging — as a contrast to Mamata Banerjee. It will also use Bihar’s numbers to embolden intra-party cadres and position the BJP as the primary alternative.
The National Template for 2026
The Bihar model presents four strategically exportable narratives for the BJP:
- continuity > experimentation
- welfare-driven women’s vote bloc
- majoritarian-national security narrative
- opposition fragmentation as opportunity
If the Congress fails to address organizational decay, and if regional parties cannot neutralize Modi’s overarching national imprint, the NDA could replicate Bihar-like sweeps in parts of eastern, northeastern, and northern India.
A Mandate with National Implications
The 2025 Bihar results are not an isolated electoral outcome. They reflect deeper shifts: a solidification of welfare politics, a consolidation of the BJP’s national footprint, and the diminishing ability of opposition alliances to project credible, cohesive leadership.
In Bihar, the NDA didn’t just defeat the RJD-Congress alliance. It out-organized it, out-narrated it, and out-mobilized it.
And if the opposition does not fundamentally reinvent itself, 2025 may be remembered not just as Bihar’s turning point — but as the moment India’s 2026 political map began to tilt unmistakably toward the ruling alliance.
Disclaimer: The opinions and views expressed in this article/column are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of South Asian Herald.
