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In spite of all the tough and bold talk, there comes a time in the White House when nearly everybody, including the President, is a bit apprehensive about what is in store in a few months’ time. And it is no different this time. Everyone in politics in Washington DC and beyond has their own take on the midterm Congressional elections in November 2026, and few would see it as a long time down the road. If Presidents-elect roll up their sleeves on the night of their win and look at their re-election four years down the road, members of Congress look at a two-year window, especially those in the House of Representatives.
This November 3, 2026, is going to be no different, as all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 out of 100 seats in the Senate are in play for the 120th Congress. So will be Governors for 39 states and territories, together with state and local elections. And in the political world of Washington DC, every two years folks look back at history, but with different pushbacks. Since 1976, the President’s party has almost always suffered losses in the House, with the Senate generally showing the same results. But invariably, the President’s party in the White House looks at the possibilities of defying history. And it is not a different story this time.
The nervousness of the Grand Old Party is only to be understood, as it holds on to razor-thin majorities in the House and Senate. But there is a lot of history getting into November 2026. Facing his first midterms in 2018, President Donald Trump lost 40 seats in the House but gained two in the Senate. But his Democratic predecessors fared worse. President Bill Clinton in 1994 lost 52 in the House and eight in the Senate, and President Barack Obama lost 63 in the House and six in the Senate in 2010, dubbed a “shellacking.” Even the Republican George W. Bush got his “thumpin,” losing 30 in the House and six in the Senate.
This time around, few are betting on a party swing on the lines of 1994, when Republicans took back the House for the first time in four decades, or the Senate after eight years. The Grand Old Party also ended the pre-eminence of the Democrats in the South. Come this November, Republicans will have to defend the goings-on of nearly two years of President Trump in power, especially in areas such as the economy, trade, tariffs, and immigration. And the backdrop to defending the track record is what is bothering the White House. The approval rating of about 50 percent has come down to 36 percent, and for a President who came away strong with Hispanics in 2024, there is now a drop in numbers in this group. Add to this Independents leaning Republican.
The early advantage of the Republicans is a Democratic Party that is hardly showing up as an entity. Granted that any political group in a diverse environment cannot be expected to be of one voice, the problem with the Democrats seems to be one of lacking a cohesive message or a messenger to spread it across. In fact, there are those within the party who wonder if the gains registered in the last eleven months, by way of a string of victories at the state hustings, can be effectively channeled at the national level.
The arguments of the Democrats that their victories are a referendum on the Republican administration, and more notably on President Trump, have yet to be effectively tested. The same goes for the contention that Republican losses were because President Trump was not on the ballot. And this is precisely where November 2026 falls. President Trump has to take up the cause of GOP candidates, and Democrats have to come through effectively with cohesive content instead of going after the White House and the Republican Party in a piecemeal fashion. It appears that Democrats have to address the concerns of Progressives and Independents, and in an immediate fashion.
For all the noise generated in recent days on Venezuela, one view is that neither the blowing up of narco-boats in the Caribbean nor the wars in Ukraine or Gaza would matter much. For the most part, elections are not won on foreign policy. As former veteran Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill put it, “all politics is local,” meaning that this boils down to bread-and-butter issues. At the end of the day, Americans are going to be looking at the price of groceries, the gas pumps, the economy, and inflation, or how good their pocketbooks feel on election day. The esoteric spin of tariffs, losing out on culture and civilization, or a better way of life for Gazans without Hamas and Hezbollah is unlikely to be a defining moment.
Republicans and Democrats are quite aware of the issues that will lead them to power or a “cold shower” this November. And neither party stands to gain by even starting to whisper about “impeachment,” with Democrats accused of wanting to go in that direction and Republicans maintaining that this is indeed the only game plan of their opposition. For a President who was impeached twice in his first term in the House but not convicted in the Senate, the chances of successfully going through for a third time against President Trump fall into one of three categories: fat, slim, and none.
Disclaimer: The opinions and views expressed in this article/column are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of South Asian Herald.
