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The Middle East and the world have been apprehensive for the last few weeks. On the one hand, it was missiles, bombs and drones all over followed by the usual two-way threats. Simultaneously there was also talk of peace and a deal around the corner. But the bottom lines are becoming increasingly clear though not in precise terms: everyone involved in the nearly six-month-old war wants out. And for the time being, the principals continue to huff and puff giving the impression that only they have the upper hand.
Clearly the Iran war has impacted the political standing of President Donald Trump and the Republican party; and coming close to the mid-term elections of November 3, it is obviously not a good feeling. The approval rating of the President is in the low 30s with Americans faulting their leader on his handling of the economy and the Iran war that has impacted the price of gas at the pumps. Democrats are now hopeful of getting the House of Representatives and a fair shot at the Senate as well. And Republicans are hoping for a quick end to the war that will provide prices relief at grocery stores and petrol pumps and in turn provide some hope at the hustings.
Domestically, military and civilian analysts along with law makers have started questioning the administration if the United States has literally wasted precious munitions and placing itself in the danger zone in case of another eventuality. Of particular concern has been on the expensive missile interceptors are forced to being used against inexpensive drones that seem to have changed the character of the war. For the record, the administration does not admit to any shortfall; if anything it has pointed to impressive production output of defense manufacturers. In fact, there is talk in some quarters of even excess availability of precision missiles and interceptors, a view that is not accepted readily in the analysts’ community.
The Trump administration is also said to be coming under increasing pressure from its allies in the Middle East to find a way out of the mess. That push is supposedly coming from Saudi Arabia which is feeling the heat for its oil exports from Iran backed proxies. Generally, nations in the Gulf have been quite wary of Tehran from the beginning as they had to face the wrath of the Revolutionary Guards that started striking American bases and other facilities. Further Iran also turned the screws on other civilian targets like airports and water de-salination plants in return for attacks on its oil infrastructure.
The pressure to find an exit has certainly not been a one-way street. Iran’s leadership has had to face some internal music as well. For all the tough and brave talk of resilience or having the capacity to play the waiting game, the economic consequences had apparently started to bite with reports surfacing of a restless population clamoring for essentials on supermarket shelves. The clampdown on oil exports by way of a naval blockade was also making an impact along with the constant threats of attacks on major terminals. On top of all this, the persistent chatter on the growing rift between the moderates and hardliners has given an element of uncertainty to the final outcome.
Quite some time back Iran found out that its “best” friends in China and Russia were not quite inclined to step up to the plate and for obvious reasons. But that did not stop the nagging suspicion that both Beijing and Moscow were secretly assisting Tehran in its war efforts especially in boosting production of missiles. And some others like North Korea who had eagerly jumped into the Russia-Ukraine war by providing troops did not get involved in the Iran-US conflict and mercifully at that. For now, nearly every nation is hoping this conflict that has impacted the regional and global economies will quickly find a solution.
In the short term, Iran and the United States will have to come to an understanding on the Strait of Hormuz. For now, Iran maintains that the only talks that are going on are between itself and Oman on managing the Hormuz whether by way of tolls or service changes. Tehran has refused to be drawn into the talk of being in negotiations with Washington as is constantly claimed by President Trump. But Washington has also made one thing quite clear from the beginning: that the Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway and as such should remain that way minus transit surcharges. At this time, it remains to be seen what other models are at work, including one of “voluntary” payments as is the case with the Straits of Malacca.
In a long-term perspective, the biggest challenge for the United States is the nuclear dilemma. As if Iran’s program by itself was not a complicated issue on its own, the recent add on by way of a civilian nuclear deal between Washington and Riyadh has added an element of uncertainty.
The details of the Saudi Arabia deal are yet to be made public with President Trump making it known that this was contingent only on the Kingdom coming on board with the Abraham Accords. Sceptics are stressing that every loophole would have to be plugged on the question of uranium enrichment and that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) would have to be a part of the process. Riyadh has been quite open about its thinking: that it will stay civilian as long as Iran keeps away from weaponization. But once Tehran gets the bomb, all bets are off.
Disclaimer: The opinions and views expressed in this article/column are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of South Asian Herald.
