The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has further cut Bangladesh’s GDP growth forecast for fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27) to 3.2 per cent, down from its April projection of 4.3 per cent.
The Washington-based global lender unveiled its latest projections in the World Economic Outlook (WEO) on Tuesday in Bangkok, as part of the 2026 Annual Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group.
In its April forecast, the IMF projected Bangladesh’s GDP growth at 4.3 per cent for FY27, before cutting the estimate by 0.8 percentage points to 3.5 per cent in July. The latest projection is a further 1.1 percentage points lower.
The IMF’s latest report also projected Bangladesh’s inflation to rise to 10.9 per cent in FY27, reversing the easing in consumer price inflation from 10 per cent to 8.7 per cent in the previous fiscal year.
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Bangladesh’s GDP (gross domestic product) growth stood at 3.6 per cent in FY26, compared with 3.5 percent in FY25, according to the IMF.
The IMF’s regional outlook for FY27 highlights significant disparities in growth and inflation across South Asia. India is projected to lead the region with GDP growth of 7.0 per cent and inflation of 4.4 per cent, while Bhutan’s economy is expected to expand by 6.9 per cent, with inflation projected at 6.5 per cent.
The Maldives is projected to record GDP growth of 3.8 per cent and inflation of 2.5 per cent. Nepal and Sri Lanka are each forecast to grow by 3.7 per cent, with inflation projected at 5.8 per cent and 5.4 per cent, respectively.
Just a week earlier, the World Bank cut its GDP growth forecast for Bangladesh in FY27 by 1.2 percentage points to 3.4 per cent, citing vulnerabilities in the energy and banking sectors, along with persistent inflationary pressures that are weighing on economic activity.
In its latest Bangladesh Development Update, released on October 6, the Washington-based global development partner said, “In Bangladesh, the return of political stability was expected to lead to a rebound in economic activity, but this has not yet materialized.”
Against this backdrop, the World Bank slashed its FY27 GDP growth forecast for Bangladesh by 1.2 percentage points to 3.4 per cent, from 4.6 per cent projected in April this year.
Last month, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) further cut its FY27 growth forecast for Bangladesh to 4.0 per cent, down from 4.5 per cent projected in July and 4.7 per cent in April.
Both the World Bank and ADB forecasts are well below the government’s 6.5 per cent GDP growth target for the current fiscal year.
