There is simply no sense of relief in the international community, even after US President Donald Trump announced that a decision on whether the United States will become directly involved on the side of Israel in the ongoing strikes against Iran will be delayed by two weeks.
It is not as if the American President is waiting for the main rivals to slug it out to see who gets up. It appears that for a person who has pledged not to get involved in a foreign war, President Trump is giving time for diplomacy to play out.
But what diplomacy? Iran has categorically said that it will not come to the table as long as Israel continued its offensives; and there is no end in sight to the two nations’ missiles barrage at each other. Some in Europe are actively speaking with Iran on ways to end the nuclear impasse; but President Trump has just about waved it all off effectively saying that Europe has no role at all in what is taking place between Washington and Teheran. “Iran wants to speak to us, not Europe,” he told media persons.
Washington has been quietly preparing for the worst: things to escalate that could force the United States to enter into the conflict. Satellite images are showing American fighter jets being pulled out of forward bases in the Gulf out of a precaution of Iranian retaliatory attacks; and a third aircraft carrier has been pressed into service with the USS Gerald Ford joining the Carl Vinson and Nimitz. In expressing optimism at the superiority of Israeli offensives, President Trump has also called for a total surrender by Iran.
Middle East specialists are making the point that Iran may have been badly hit in the ongoing strikes but there is hardly anything to indicate of the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei walking into downtown Tehran waving a white flag. Internally, the point is made, that the present regime may have been weakened but hardly any indications of wilting under pressure. Israel has indicated—and acknowledged by the United States—that Ayatollah Khamenei could be personally targeted. And for those who see this as a sign of the objective of “regime change,” a quick reminder that the strength for regime change should come from within and not imposed from the outside.
A major source of global concern is on the impact of the strikes on nuclear facilities with Israel saying that it has indeed hit sites in Natanz, Arak, Isfahan and in Tehran with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) speaking of damage to the uranium enrichment plant at Natanz and at Isfahan, Karaj and Tehran. But the major source of concern and attention is on the nuclear reactor at Bushehr where scientists are making the critical distinction between attacking enrichment facilities as opposed to striking power reactors.
An attack on Bushehr “could cause an absolute radiological catastrophe,” James Acton of the Nuclear Policy Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has been quoted in an agency report. Situated on the Gulf Coast, the worry of nations in the area is in the contamination of the Gulf waters and desalination plants that cater to the needs of the region.
“If a natural disaster, oil spill, or even a targeted attack were to disrupt a desalination plant, hundreds of thousands could lose access to freshwater almost instantly,” said Professor Nidal Hilal of New York University Abu Dhabi’s Water Research Center. “Coastal desalination plants are especially vulnerable to regional hazards like oil spills and potential nuclear contamination.”
In the midst of all the dangerous manoeuvres by Israel and Iran, there is a quiet sideshow also going on: whether President Trump will assist Israeli in blowing up the enrichment facility at Fordow with all the hundreds of advanced centrifuges and said to be close to weapons grade 90 percent enrichment. The site close to Tehran is on a side of a mountain and about 300 feet underground making it almost impregnable. Only the United States with its 30,000 pound GBU 57 A/B bunker buster bomb delivered by a B-2 bomber is said to be capable of reaching that depth.
Even here analysts are saying that one bunker buster alone cannot finish the job—rather requiring multiple 30,000 pounders entering the shaft to level the underground site. And here is the kicker: the GBU 57 A/B has not been battle tested, it is said.
President Trump is quite aware of the implications of playing with fire; and may not be the one to be egged on to move in a particular direction. In fact the self-imposed two week breather or pause serves his domestic agenda as well where his detractors in the Democratic party as well as within his own MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement are against any American involvement but for different reasons.
If Democrats are rallying behind the anti-war slogan including those in Congress demanding that the President get the consent of law makers as required by the 1973 War Powers Act, dissenters in the MAGA are outraged that the President would even think of walking back on a “NO” to intervention in foreign wars.
Disclaimer: The opinions and views expressed in this article/column are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of South Asian Herald.
