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There are a lot of developments in the Middle East pertaining to the American-Israeli war on Iran; but none that speaks or even point in any positive direction as to how parties to the conflict are going to get out of the mess.
The top leadership in Tehran may have been wiped out and its military assets significantly downgraded but nothing points to a political collapse of either the regime of Clerics or the Revolutionary Guards that acts as a prop. And for all the talk of the successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei meeting the same fate as his father or seriously injured, it appears that Mojtaba Khamenei is very much around and calling the shots.
Adding to the freewheeling bombast from Washington and Tel Aviv are reports of negotiations, messages and back channels even if no one is not sure of who the parties are involved in all this back and forth. Every now and then President Donald Trump speaks of “talking” to the emergent leaders of Tehran; only to find a solid denial from the other side or rubbishing any notion that Iran is “begging” for peace. An undoubtedly weakened Iran is consistently saying that it is in this business till the end. For a war that is now in the fifth week, there are no indications of an endgame; and this for some madness that was expected to last between four and six weeks.
President Trump’s address to the nation on Wednesday talked about many things except when this war was going to end; or in any outlines to that effect. The warning to Tehran that it risks being bombed back to the stone age aside there was this usual frustration with the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) not stepping up to the plate in at least keeping the Strait of Hormuz open.
President Trump’s ire against America’s allies in Europe and Asia are well known; and this is not new or something unique to this administration or White House. Allies in Europe and Asia, especially Japan have heard that “free loader” theme with both Democratic and Republican administrations.
But what is now new is a President who keeps saying that perhaps the time has come for America to leave the NATO, a threat that perhaps Europe may be getting tired of hearing. France, for instance, has pointedly made the point that NATO is a Europe-Atlantic alliance that has nothing to do with keeping the Hormuz open; and that militarily getting involved in this exercise would be a violation of international law. “I believe organisations and alliances like Nato are defined by what is left unsaid – that is, the trust that underpins them. If you cast doubt on your commitment every day, you erode its very substance,” President Emmanuel Macron said during a visit to South Korea.
President Macron tore into his American counterpart’s inconsistent and contradictory remarks on the war in Iran and on NATO, making the point that to be taken “serious,” it was better not to say different things every day. “There is too much talk … and it’s all over the place. We all need stability, calm, a return to peace – this isn’t a show,” he said adding “You have to be serious. When you want to be serious, you don’t go around saying the opposite every day of what you just said the day before. And perhaps you shouldn’t talk every day.”
What President Macron bluntly put across is perhaps what others are thinking, not just in Europe but elsewhere as well but unable to say so for different reasons. The start of the war against Iran on February 28 was confusing by itself as far as the objectives were concerned.
If the idea was to take out the Iranian nuclear program where was this need when the program was obliterated in June 2025 as per the statements of President Trump himself? And if the regime change was the purpose, that would have made more sense for an American intervention in January 2026 when the regime in Tehran had wholesale blood on its hands by murdering protestors in the streets—an estimated 7000 to 10,000 are believed to have been done to death.
Now President Trump has argued that a regime change has been effected because the previous leaders have been eliminated through missile and bomb attacks, principally by Israel. In all the noise, clutter, huffing and puffing, there is only one signal coming out of Iran that intelligence agencies are able to glean: militarily Iran’s missiles and launch platforms are very much around; and politically, a ruthless core of the past will still be able to call the shots, much to the detriment of Washington, Tel Aviv and the Gulf capitals.
The fear is that the worst may be yet to come. If the Pentagon is planning for one final massive round of bombing runs to hit more energy and water desalination plants or putting boots on the ground on the pretext of snatching the 400-dd kilograms of uranium believed to be lying around, it will be painful to all parties. To expect Iran to be a mute spectator is living in a delusionary world. Tehran can be expected to spread the pain around especially in the neighbourhood.
Disclaimer: The opinions and views expressed in this article/column are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of South Asian Herald.
