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What is happening politically must be music to the ears of the Democratic Party. Equally there are sober elements in the party to believe that the outcome of the November 3 Mid Terms is not all wrapped up with getting the House of Representatives and perhaps even the Senate.
Many in the establishment know that President Donald Trump may be a recent convert to the world of politics from business, but that did not mean he is politically naïve. Rubbishing polls as coming from “fake news” outlets is one thing; but the man in the White House for sure knows that the Grand Old Party or the Make America Great Again (MAGA) base is not rock solid behind him.
If analysts are anything to go by, the big question as far as the House of Representatives is not if Republicans are going to lose but by how much. The general feeling is that the House is going to be in the shocking margins; and now a sinking feeling within the Grand Old Party that the Senate could be in play as well. One recent poll shows that 54 percent believing that Democrats had a chance of winning the Senate, up from 33 percent in January. And troublesome to the GOP should be that key races would seem to be slipping away as in Georgia and North Carolina. Nebraska that has not had a Democratic Senator since 2006 is now placed in the “likely GOP” column.
And there is trouble in Ohio as well, a state that President Trump carried by about 12 points in 2024. Republican Vivek Ramaswamy has dopped four points in the Governor’s race with the Senate seat tightening up. Democrats are now also seeing opportunities in Florida, Iowa, Alaska and Texas. In the last several weeks, key voting segments have been turned off on a number of issues: rising prices of groceries; the price of gas at pumps as a result of the Iran war; and a generally perceived economic gloom as a result of the stock market volatility.
To all this add President Trump’s spat with the Pope that has raised eyebrows not just with Catholics but with the Christian community and White Christians who have traditionally voted with Republicans and President Trump.
Perhaps Republicans are hoping for a turnaround in political fortunes if the war comes to an early closure. President Trump who tagged on to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bombing operations against Tehran on February 28 is now giving the impression that a “deal” is in the making by way of complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran giving up its stockpile of Uranium.
The catch here is the time frame for the 400-odd Kilograms to get into American hands. After initially rejecting Teheran’s twenty years limit and insisting on five, Washington apparently is willing to let it slide into a fuzzy “what’s the hurry” frame. And with Iran insisting that Lebanon ought to be a part of any understanding, President Trump has announced a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, leaving Tel Aviv apparently in a state of shock.
The Democrats have a plate full of President Trump’s worries that they could feast on but have to be cautioned on being over confident either of how the Mid Terms are going to turn out or that somehow the White House was going to dig itself a bigger hole. Strategists for the GOP are aware that there are six months left for the Mid Terms and that there was enough time to start addressing issues that matter most to voters, especially on the economic front. An end to the war in the Middle East will most certainly see a downtrend in the price of oil that will reflect in the pumps; and a stock market boom is predictable once calm returns.
Before counting the seat wins in the House and perhaps the Senate, Democrats will have to set their priorities in order. The temptation to squander away what has been given is very much there starting with the message and the messenger. Traditional Democrats will have to wrestle with the Left, Moderates, Progressives and Independents for space and policy priorities. The Republican camp will be gleefully looking at Democrats tearing into themselves, not on Iran or the Middle East but on health and medical care, social security reforms, taxes, government shutdowns and general directions of the polity. All this is a GOP hope that the Trump administration does not wander into another foreign escapade.
Supporters of President Trump may be outraged that he has moved away from a pledge against foreign entanglements by way of nation building and regime change; but Americans in general know that foreign affairs hardly matters in domestic electoral politics except in rare instances like the Vietnam war. The Republican bet will be that as long as President Trump plays by an economic script, media attention span will quickly move away, just as how outlets now rarely talk of West Bank, Gaza or the Board of Peace. Likewise right-wing losses in Hungary and other European countries will hardly matter as any great political loss to President Trump.
The Democrats will also have to tread extremely carefully on the subject of Impeachment much as the temptation may be to go after President Trump as rumblings along these lines have already begun. The White House will campaign on the plank that for two years after November 3, Democrats will be on the Impeachment mode with no movement on the legislative agenda but with the same failed result as before.
Disclaimer: The opinions and views expressed in this article/column are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of South Asian Herald.
