Canada By-Elections Seen as Crucial Test for Mark Carney’s Liberal Minority Government

Will Doly Begum, who ended her long association with the New Democratic Party (NDP) earlier this year, provide a political boost to Prime Minister Mark Carney and his Liberal Party in the House of Commons?

Begum is one of eight candidates contesting in Scarborough Southwest, one of three ridings where by-elections are scheduled for April 13. The Liberals, led by Carney, are currently one seat short of a razor-thin majority in the House of Commons. A win in one or more of these contests could secure the party’s position for the remainder of the parliamentary term.

Of South Asian descent, Begum previously served as deputy leader of the NDP in the Ontario Provincial Assembly. Her decision to switch parties has sparked political debate, particularly given her multiple electoral victories at the provincial level. Another candidate of South Asian descent in the Scarborough Southwest race is Pooja Malhotra of the Green Party. Other candidates include Diana Filippova (Conservatives), April Francisco (Independent), Peter Kovbakis (People’s Party), Lyall Sanders (Centrist Party), Fatima Shaban (NDP), and David Vedova (Christian Heritage Party).

In the University-Rosedale riding, vacated by Chrystia Freeland after she stepped down to take on an assignment related to Ukraine, ten candidates are contesting the by-election. Among them are Dan Hodgson (Conservative), Dr. Danielle Martin (Liberal), Serena Pardy (NDP), and Andrew Massey (Green). The riding has traditionally been a stronghold for the Liberals.

The third by-election, in Quebec’s Terrebonne riding, features a record 49 candidates. Key contenders include Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste, whose earlier election was invalidated by the Supreme Court of Canada, Maxime Beaudoin (NDP), Adrienne Charles (Conservatives), and Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné (Bloc Québécois), who had challenged the previous election result.

In the April 2025 federal elections, the Liberals improved their tally to 166 seats, up from 153 in the previous House, but still fell short of a majority. Since then, shifts in party alignment have altered the political landscape. Several Members of Parliament from the opposition Conservatives have crossed the floor to join the Liberals. However, the party remains short of a majority due to vacancies created when some Liberal MPs left politics to join the diplomatic corps, prompting the current by-elections.

Among the contests is the Montreal-area riding of Terrebonne, where the Supreme Court recently invalidated last year’s election result. Initially, Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste was declared the winner, but the outcome later shifted to Bloc Québécois candidate Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné after vote validation. A judicial recount concluded that the Liberals had won by a single vote. However, Sinclair-Desgagné challenged the result, citing an uncounted mail-in ballot, and on February 13, the Supreme Court ruled in her favor, leading to the by-election.

The upcoming by-elections are widely viewed as a significant test for Carney and his minority government, particularly as the opposition Conservatives intensify their challenge.

The Scarborough Southwest seat became vacant after longtime MP Bill Blair resigned to serve as Canada’s High Commissioner to the United Kingdom. In University-Rosedale, the vacancy followed Freeland’s resignation in January to assume an advisory role with the Ukrainian government.

Currently, the Liberals hold 169 seats in the House of Commons. Winning all three by-elections would give them a narrow majority. Even securing one seat could be sufficient to achieve that threshold.

The Liberals have nominated family physician and health care advocate Dr. Danielle Martin in University-Rosedale, while Begum is contesting from Scarborough Southwest. Both ridings are considered favorable to the party.

Ahead of the by-elections, another Conservative MP, Marilyn Gladu of Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong, crossed the floor to join the Liberals, bringing the government closer to a majority.

Gladu said in a statement that she is joining Carney because it is “the best thing for our community’s priorities and for our country.” She becomes the fifth MP to join the Liberals since the 2025 election and the fourth from the Conservative Party.

Chris d’Entremont, Michael Ma, and Matt Jeneroux previously left the Conservatives to join the Liberals between November 2025 and February 2026. Nunavut MP Lori Idlout also left the NDP in March.

With three by-elections set for April 13, the results are expected to play a decisive role in determining whether the Liberals can secure a governing majority.