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What was seen as unthinkable during the heydays of the Cold War is now being talked about as if the nightmare is around the corner. Reports have it that officials of the World Health Organisation (WHO) are supposedly preparing for the nuclear weapons use scenario in the Middle East; and in ways more than one the international community cannot blame that United Nations organization of unnecessarily setting off the panic button. Afterall the battle of wits seems to be moving from an aura of madness to that of insanity and all in the name of strategic planning or moves.
At a time when academics were debating the “horizontalization” of the conflict with Iran taking the war to its Gulf neighbors, the intensity and ferocity of going after energy infrastructures in Iran and outside Iran has baffled the world at large who have been reduced to mute spectators in the ongoing free-for-all. Washington has feigned ignorance at Tel Aviv striking the Iranian gas fields of South Pars, but Israel insists that the Trump administration was kept in the loop. And Iran for its part unleashed its fury on the LNG facilities in Ras Laffan in Qatar and in the process jeopardizing global supplies for several months even after normality resumes at the plants.
In the meantime global attention is on the Strait of Hormuz that accounts for about one-fifth of oil passage on a daily basis with some countries like Japan dependent between 70 and 90 percent of its imported crude through that narrow waterways. Iran has resorted to allowing super tankers carrying oil after bilateral consultations as with India; is planning to levying a fee for transit; or in a worst case has mined or threatened to mine the strip. The intensification of the war—vertical or horizontal—has sent crude prices on a wild fluctuation and scarcity for LPG in importing countries like India. Ostensibly to keep down the price of crude the Trump administration has lifted sanctions on Iranian crude that is at sea. Last week Washington made a similar move on Russian oil.
A war that started without any clearly defined objectives is hurting President Donald Trump politically. The near consensus is that only President Trump can put an end to this dangerous conflict that is showing all signs of getting out of control. Politically President Trump is being blamed for falling into the trap of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu; and that Washington has to start walking back blunting laying out the cards to Tel Aviv. In the process of allowing Tel Aviv a free hand in going after the leadership in Teheran, the fear now is that eventually both the United States and Israel will be left to deal with unknown actors and varying agendas.
The net result being a possibility of a harder line emerging, not just with issues of governance and nuclear program but also of propping up proxies in the region and elsewhere however weak at this time. The worst-case scenario is a fractured Iran and several groups competing for power with no credible central authority in Teheran. This would be a suicidal environment for Washington if it is planning on putting ground troops in any fancy hunt for the 400-odd kilograms of uranium said to be lying around in the pursuit of a nuclear program. President Trump has said that he has no plans to induct boots on the ground but unconfirmed reports speak of marines already enroute.
Here is a war that no one knows why it started—ending Iran’s quest for a nuclear weapons program or ending a regime of clerics known for their brutality and for blood in their hands internally and overseas. If regime change had been the stated goal, few tears would have been shed; but the shifting objectives and narratives have cast the United States in a negative light especially in a perception of being led around by Israel to satisfy Prime Minister Netanyahu’s whims and fancies.
The result has been a wedge between Washington and its European allies with none wanting to step up and be counted for especially when push comes to shove in the closure and mining of the Strait of Hormuz. The initial anger of President Trump has finally come down to “I don’t need you… never did in the first place” or words to that effect. Now the Pentagon is apparently planning to ask Congress for an additional US$ 200 billions for the war effort; an idea that is being frowned upon by even Republicans.
President Trump is perhaps the only leader in recent memory who has not witnessed a “rally behind the flag” moment or even a small bump in the polls. Contrast this to President George H.W. Bush at the start of Gulf War One in 1991 or President George W Bush in the invasion of Afghanistan in the aftermath of the terror attacks of September 11, 2001.
The scary part of the ongoing Middle East conflict is not merely in a musing of the “unthinkable”; it is in a conscious debate of whether to fall back on the nuclear weapons insurance like the “comprehensive” Saudi Arabia-Pakistan Defence Pact and in the process drawing South Asia into the arena. Perhaps the only thing that has not yet happened is Teheran saying that it is reaching out to its “ally” North Korea for its insurance. Chairman Kim Jong Un would only be too happy to join the fray.
Disclaimer: The opinions and views expressed in this article/column are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of South Asian Herald.
