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In the political world of Republicans and Democrats, there is this hope that 2026 should definitely be better than how 2025 unfolded over the months. From the initial euphoria of the swearing in of the second presidency of Donald J Trump, and all the semblance of unity in the ranks, came a slow realization over the next ten months that perhaps there could have been an overreach of executive power and the start of an understanding that the mid-term elections of November 2026 are not too far away. Suddenly, there was a realization that the aura of invincibility is not something to be taken for granted.
It is not as if the Republicans are limping around in the political spectrum, although they have taken some hits, and major ones at that. The results of governor races in Virginia and New Jersey; special elections in states like Georgia and Pennsylvania; and the mayor’s poll in New York City all had something for the Democrats to cheer about, perhaps even gleefully. The 45-day government shutdown did impact both parties, but the noise over the Jeffrey Epstein files showed moderate members of the Grand Old Party sending a clear message to the hardline backers of the White House.
The redacted files that should have been out by December 19 are still searching for a way out, with the Department of Justice saying over the Christmas break that one million files are yet to see the light of day, along with a bizarre request for volunteers to help with the task. Apparently, it could take days for some sense of closure on making the files public, bringing about criticism of the manner in which the administration, especially the DOJ, is going about its mandates. Right from the beginning, there was nothing to implicate President Trump in the affairs of a convicted and deceased person who had been accused of trafficking in minors. Prominent political, business, and academic personalities have figured by way of association over the years, if not decades.
The furor over the Epstein files was only to be expected, for even during the course of the presidential campaign in 2024, candidate Trump promised full disclosure to his Make America Great Again base, and his hardcore supporters insisted on knowing the full scope of what and who were behind the disgraced financier. The Epstein files only added to the existing unease of Republicans who were looking at political developments in the context of what was going to take place several months down the line. The fact that even Republicans in sure districts in the House of Representatives were giving up their seats and not seeking re-election is an indication of the political environment in Washington DC.
To an extent, the White House has been restrained and put on the defensive, and none of this can be pinned down to one or two issues. President Trump, who started off his second non-consecutive term with an approval rating of around 50 percent, now sees that at a low 36 percent, with 60 percent disapproval. What is also pointed out is that the President’s approval on crime, foreign affairs, foreign trade, and immigration is higher than the overall approval figures. Still, the President, who managed to weave a campaign around affordability in 2024, soon found himself in a tight spot trying to wiggle out of the issue by saying that this was a Democratic fraud, hoax, and con job. His defense of the economy did not get as much traction as expected, for improved official statistics are not reflecting in grocery bills.
In ordinary circumstances, the travails of a President and his party should pump up the chances of the political opposition. But Democrats are finding that they are faring far worse than their Commander-in-Chief sitting in the White House. The approval rating of Democrats in Congress is put at 18 percent, a record low according to a Quinnipiac University national poll, and 73 percent disapprove. The survey also showed that among Democrats, only 42 percent approved of the way their members are handling the job, while 48 percent disapproved.
The Democrats are quite aware of their problem, only that they appear to be searching for a solution to fix it. The key issue for Democrats is quite fundamental, how to define the core ideology and how to reconcile the differences between the various wings, especially the progressives and independents. Most important is finding an acceptable leader cutting across ideology, gender, and age to push the party above the required thresholds in the House of Representatives and the Senate, where the majorities are quite slim and the winning margins narrow. For now, there is a perception that the rank and file are unhappy with the leadership in both the House and Senate.
It is too early to hedge bets on November 2026 and, by extension, November 2028. The conventional thinking is that the party that holds the White House loses in the mid-terms, and many, including President Trump, have seen this process fan out. That said, an overdose of confidence would not necessarily ease the pain of Democrats who are yet to come to terms with what happened in November 2024.
The Democrats are not releasing the results of “what went wrong,” and this is quite understandable, for no one wants to give away strategies. But the only hope is that the political autopsy results are studied well to prevent a repeat. The optimists among Democrats will see the slender margins of the Grand Old Party in the House and Senate as not difficult to overcome.
Disclaimer: The opinions and views expressed in this article/column are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of South Asian Herald.
