When Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visits India in March, the prospects for signing a long-discussed uranium supply agreement appear strong. India and Canada have been finalizing modalities for the deal for some time. Valued at approximately US $2.8 billion, the agreement would provide for the supply of uranium by Canada’s Cameco Corporation to India over a 10-year period and would form part of broader nuclear cooperation between the two countries.

These developments have been highlighted in recent Canadian media reports pointing to an improvement in bilateral relations.

Although India had sought a Carney visit timed with the AI Summit in New Delhi in mid-February, there is now speculation that the Canadian Prime Minister may include India as a stopover before or after his visit to Australia in March.

The visit, Carney’s first to India as prime minister, could also pave the way for the revival of negotiations on a comprehensive trade agreement. Talks were suspended following a two-year rupture in relations between the two nations.

Ties reached a low point in 2023 when then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau publicly accused India of involvement in the killing of a Canadian Sikh in Surrey in June that year. India has strongly denied the allegation. In recent months, however, both governments have signaled a willingness to cooperate more closely on transnational crime and security issues during a renewed exchange of official visits.

Canada has said it is investigating alleged transnational repression targeting Sikh activists or pro-Khalistan supporters, with four Indian nationals facing prosecution in the Nijjar assassination case.

As part of these efforts, the national security advisers of both countries have remained in close contact. Canada’s National Security Adviser Nathalie G. Drouin visited India in September last year and met with her Indian counterpart, Ajit Doval. Doval is now expected to visit Canada in the coming weeks to advance discussions on intelligence sharing and cooperation related to Indian gangs operating in Canada.

India’s new High Commissioner to Canada, Dinesh Patnaik, has also sought to project New Delhi’s perspective through interviews with leading Canadian media outlets, including CBC and The Globe and Mail. He has held meetings with provincial premiers and invited them to visit India to explore trade and business opportunities.

Against a shifting global geopolitical backdrop, both countries are looking to identify new avenues for strengthening economic ties. In one interview, Patnaik was quoted as saying that “India has long viewed Canada as the youngest brother of the United States.”

He was also quoted as saying that “in India’s view, Carney has been carving out a more independent role for Canada,” citing his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 20. 

According to Canadian media reports, the speech was widely interpreted as a veiled critique of the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump on the international rules-based order, at a time when Carney has been seeking to reduce Canada’s dependence on U.S. trade by diversifying partnerships.

On trade negotiations, Patnaik said that one benefit of concluding a major deal elsewhere is that India’s negotiating capacity can now focus more closely on talks with Canada. He said he expects it could take about a year to reach an agreement, though that timeline could potentially be shortened.

Ministerial exchanges between the two countries have also gathered momentum in recent months. These were initiated by Canada’s Foreign Minister Anita Anand and have included visits to India by Anand, Maninder Singh Sidhu, and Energy Minister Tom Hodgson. British Columbia Premier David Eby has also traveled to India, and additional Canadian delegations are expected to follow.

A delegation from the Indo-Canadian Chamber of Commerce is scheduled to visit Mumbai, New Delhi, and Chandigarh in the second week of March. Earlier, a Canadian Hindu Chamber of Commerce delegation reported a positive reception during visits to Assam, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Chandigarh.

The renewed engagement gained traction after the Canadian Prime Minister extended an invitation to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend the G20 summit in Canada, despite domestic criticism. This was followed by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s participation in the G7 Foreign Ministers’ meeting at Niagara, at Anand’s invitation.

Looking ahead, several senior Indian officials are expected to visit Canada in the coming weeks, including National Security Adviser Ajit Doval; Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal; Minister of Finance and Corporate Affairs Nirmala Sitharaman; Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri; and Minister of Education Dharmendra Pradhan.

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