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When Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi dissolved the lower house of parliament and opted for snap polls on February 8, she must have been quite aware of the fact that the forthcoming election is perhaps going to be one of the most unpredictable ones that Japan has witnessed in several decades.
It is not just a question of the Liberal Democratic Party is in a new political frame and away from the traditional four or five faction mold but in the emerging political scenarios starting with the breakup of a 26 year old alliance with Komeito last October, the emergence of a new opposition alliance and a small far right party, the Sanseito, making all the necessary noise in the political spectrum.
With the support of three Independents, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party along with its coalition partner the Japan Innovation Party have a one seat majority in the outgoing Lower House; and Prime Minister Takaichi’s priority is to see if this razor thin majority can be improved, for the LDP and the Coalition partner. And complicating this is the new Centrist Reform Alliance consisting of the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and the Komeito, primarily to put a brake on the rightward tilt and remain committed to the broad parameters of the post war pacifist Constitution. Barely four months in office, Prime Minister Takaichi bold call – seen as risk or gamble – is undoubtedly seen as a referendum on her policies and future alternatives for that East Asian country.
If the personal popularity of the Prime Minister is the sole determinant, the ruling LDP coalition should win by a landslide. Opinion polls have placed the approval rating of the Prime Minister between 62 percent and 78 percent. But the problem is that the popularity of the LDP is less than 30 percent, making winning and the margins that come with it an uphill task. The ruling coalition is also pitted against the Democratic Party for the People focused on wage growth and working households and the “Japanese First” right wing Sanseito.
“I am putting my future as Prime Minister on this election,” Takaichi has been quoted, prompting political analysts to question whether the Japanese leader has taken the right decision to go for early elections when they were not due till October 2028. Some argue that the personal popularity of the Prime Minister could be blunted in the absence of organizational strength that the Komeito had earlier provided that could hurt LDP candidates. The message could not be clearer: the Prime Minister’s popularity need not translate into gains for the LDP, even as there is the perception that Takaichi’s personal appeal would matter more than policies and could actually result in a landslide win.
The February polls will undoubtedly leave its mark, not just for the direction of the internal political dynamics of Japan and domestic economic policies but for East Asia, the Indo Pacific and the world at large. In the short time Prime Minister Takaichi has been at the helm, her policies and demeanor have been appreciated as well as drawn sharp criticism. On the one hand she has shown her adeptness at the world stage and in interactions with the leaders of the United States, China, India and South Korea at bilateral and in global settings. But on the other hand, she has been taken to task for making comments on Taiwan that has not only rattled Asia but also upsetting a delicate relationship with Beijing.
China will undoubtedly be a major focal point of attention to Japan, not just because of trade and investments. China is the biggest market of Japan with bilateral trade in the range of US$ 300 billions annually with Tokyo posting a persistent deficit. With major trade items including electrical and electronics, autos and chemical products and some 30,000 Japanese firms having bases in China, weaponization of trade has also been something that policy makers in Tokyo have been facing, the more recent example being in China’s restrictions on dual use items like rare earths because of comments on Taiwan. Beijing has also recently turned off the tourism tap as a way of punishing Japan. It is pointed out that Chinese tourism has started showing a downward trend since the end of 2025 shortly after Prime Minister Takaichi remarked that Japan could become militarily involved should China invade Taiwan.
Prime Minister Takaichi understands well that Japan is now in a tougher neighborhood, not just on account of China flexing its muscles in the Indo Pacific but in the larger questions of continued American commitment in the region and beyond or if Washington would throw all its Asian allies under the bus in a larger interest to reach an understanding with China. The rightist drift and a seemingly muscular defense posturing have also to factor in Chairman Kim Jong Un of North Korea, his daily nuclear threats and sermons.
All of which raises the question if Japan would go the nuclear route as some of the loud noise on the subject can already be heard in the country. As the only nation to have seen the horrors of atomic bombings in the Second World War, a vast majority of the Japanese are for maintaining the three “non-nuclear principles” of not possessing, producing or allowing nuclear weapons into their territory. And Official Japan sticks to this policy. But this has not stopped some from wondering if Japan is already an undeclared nuclear power or only a “screwdriver” away from becoming one.
Disclaimer: The opinions and views expressed in this article/column are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of South Asian Herald.
